Understanding Coin Population
Category: Determining Collectability
In the world of numismatics, there are three numbers often used when determining the rarity of a coin: the mintage, the survival rate, and the coin population.
Of the three, the most well-known term among coin collectors is mintage—the number of coins struck for a particular issue.
Then you have the survival estimate, which is the number of coins that appear to remain as seen in verified trades, auctions, and other events. Finally, there’s the population, which is a report that is frequently referenced in the numismatic world to determine the rarity and value of a coin.
More than mere numbers, coin population plays a significant part in setting the market sentiment for a coin. It also helps establish confidence and assurance when investors and collectors know how much their graded coins are worth.
What Is Coin Population?
Coin population refers to the total number of coins of a specific type, year, denomination, or mintmark that have been graded and certified by a reputable grading service. This metric offers valuable insights into the scarcity of a coin, thereby affecting its market demand and desirability.
Data for the coin population is gathered by assessing the condition of each individual coin and assigning a grade to it based on a standardized scale such as the Sheldon Scale. These graded coins are then documented, and the data is compiled to create a population report—a comprehensive overview of the coin’s graded population that helps numismatists make informed decisions for collecting and investing.
Understanding Coin Population Reports and Their Significance
To better understand the relevance of a coin’s population, we need to understand population reports, also known “pop reports” by some collectors.
A population report is a publicly available compilation of data on graded and certified coins of a specific variety, denomination, year, or mintmark. It’s released by reputable coin grading services such as the Numismatic Guaranty Company (NGC) and the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS). These reports are typically updated on a daily basis by the grading service, which means that population figures for any coin can change materially as new information becomes available.
It isn’t unusual for coin clubs, research institutions, and associations to also contribute in the grading and documentation of coins. They’ll work closely with the grading services, providing them with their own gathered information and help to maintain the database that keeps track of different coin populations.
Why is Coin Population Important?
As a collector or investor, knowing the population of your coins can come with many benefits. You’ll have a better idea of how much your entire collection is worth to other numismatists, and there’s more transparency and confidence with each transaction since all parties are aware of the coin’s rarity and value.
The data on coin population can also be used by Mints and government authorities in planning coin production. They can use population reports to gain insights into the currency needs of the public and businesses, then decide on the quantities and denominations of coins to mint.
Mintage vs. Population
Both the mintage and population are important concepts in the coin world. They are similar in that they refer to numerical data for coins, but the difference lies in the aspect:
- Mintage refers to the number of coins initially produced by an official mint facility during a specific time and for a specific coin issue. It also tells us how many coins entered circulation or were sold to collectors.
- Population is data referring to the number of coins of a specific type that have been found, examined, and officially certified by grading experts. Note that in some cases, the terms “census” and “population” are used interchangeably.
Another major difference between them is that the data on coin mintage is fixed while the coin population can change as new coins are discovered and certified. In some cases, graded coins can also lose their certification or become lost.
Determining Value By Population
The relationship between population and value in numismatics follows a simple supply-and-demand concept. A coin with a population of two means that only two individual coins of that grade were certified by a grading service, making it an exceptionally scarce item in the market. This increases the interest of collectors to acquire them, driving up its value substantially.
High-population coins, also known as common coins, perform differently in the market. Due to their abundance and availability, they won’t be as expensive as their rare counterparts. But many collectors may prefer to purchase them for their price stability, and they’re often viewed as a secure choice for risk-averse investors and collectors.
Where Can I Get the Population Information for My Coin?
You can find a plethora of information on coins, including their population report, on grading services’ websites such as the NGC and PCGS.
Many coin guides and books also include the population information for popular coins, but this information can easily become outdated. It’s highly recommended that you refer to the online database from grading services since they are continually updated and maintained.